Alex Smart |
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Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. Testing long term $77000.00 plus dime player run! |
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 17, 2024 Pirates vs Cubs |
Cubs +100 at YouWager |
Lost $100.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
The Pirates offense continues to struggle and according to my projections are fade material in this afternoon spot play at Wrigley. The Pittsburgh Pirates have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 34 games (-14.50 Units / -35% ROI)
MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PITTSBURGH) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts are 8-29 L/5 seasons for a go against 79?% conversion rate. Play on Chicago Cubs to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 17, 2024 Rays vs Blue Jays |
Rays +165 at Ace |
Won $165 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Value with the road dog. Advantage Rays. MLB team (TORONTO) - sub standard offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .165 or worse over their last 3 games are 4-29 L/27 seasons for go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Rays to win |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NBA | May 17, 2024 Knicks vs Pacers |
Pacers -6 -110 at circa |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
The Knicks dug deep last time out, and came up with a big win at home, despite of a lack of viable depth. The Knicks did exert alot of energy in that last victory, and Im betting on immediate regression because of exhaustion. The last time the Knicks played here in Indiana they looked gassed, and I wont be surprised if it happens again. NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 40-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indiana to cover |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 17, 2024 Twins vs Guardians |
OVER 8 -115 |
Lost $115.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
The Twins are averaging .5.4 rpg on the road this season and are a viable offensive unit, while Cleveland averages 4.7 rpg at home. Cleveland has averaged five runs and behind 18 homers while winning 10 of its past 13 home contests. According to my early season power rankings the Twins matchup well vs scheduled Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie (2-3, 3.54 ERA) who recorded a 6.23 ERA while losing two of his first three 2024 starts. Hes pitched better of late, but still looks beatable. The Guardians righty owns a 2-5 record along with a 5.14 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Twins. Meanwhile, scheduled Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson (1-0, 3.24 ERA) is off giving up five runs on eight hits (including two solo homers) in 4 1/3 innings during a no-decision against the Toronto Blue Jays this past Saturday. He will have his hands full with Josh Naylor who is batting .328 at home and has hit seven of his 12 home runs in 17 home tilts this season and off course Guardians star Jose Ramirez who has five homers and 14 RBIs in his past 12 at home contests. Everything points to an over wager cashing for us tonight. MINNESOTA is 49-27 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored. CLEVELAND is 8-1 OVER in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CLEVELAND/MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good teams (54% to 62%), in May games are 80-38 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 9.4 rpg game. MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CLEVELAND) - ice cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 85-49 OVER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate with the combined average score clicking in at 9.3 rpg . Play over |
PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
WNBA | May 18, 2024 Fever vs Liberty |
Fever +14½ -110 at linepros |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith and the addition of Caitlin Clark make this Fever team an explosive Indiana offense and because of this when they get in a groove are dangerous DD underdog opponent and back door cover candidates. The Liberty smashed the Fever in the recent meeting but Im now betting on a much better effort here at home and for a cover by the under rated pup. NBAFavorites (NEW YORK) - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 72 or more points/game, after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games are 36-71 ATS L/27 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate. Liberty are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.Liberty are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.Liberty are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.Liberty are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Play on |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
MLB | May 18, 2024 White Sox vs Yankees |
Yankees -1½ -135 at Mirage |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
CHI WHITE SOX are 4-21 in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better over the last 2 seasons with the average margin rpg diff clicking in at -2.7.
MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after a loss by 2 runs or less are 4-44 L/5 seasons for. a 92% go against covnersion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at -4.4 which easily qualifies on this runline offering. Play on the Yankees to win -1.5 runline |
SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |